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Statewide Crash Analysis and Forecasting (Full Text)

Authors: Paul P. Jovanis, Jonathan Aguero and Kun-Feng Wu

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

There is a need for the development of safety analysis tools to allow PennDOT to better assess the safety performance of road segments in the Commonwealth. The project utilized a safety management system database at PennDOT that integrates crash, occupant, vehicle and traffic information in an integrated searchable format (i.e., C-DART). The analyses conducted and models produced in this research should enhance PennDOT’s ability to conduct safety analyses, particularly those using C-DART. The list of sites with promise contains a rank ordering of road segments offering the greatest potential for safety improvement. The model containing crash severity levels should give PennDOT additional confidence when combining fatal and severe injury crashes in needed analyses. Lastly, the models including census data have explored the feasibility of using that approach to safety modeling (although additional testing is needed).